What are sanctions and to what extent will they fulfill ends of curbing Russia’s sphere of influence?
Following the downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine there has been continuous speculation over whether the passenger plane was shot down by Pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels, or by Ukrainian authorities themselves. Naturally, both parties vehemently deny any involvement in the crash however the downing of MH17 has raised serious questions over Russia’s role in Eastern Ukraine, and further its involvement in heightening the sense of conflict in the area.
Sanctions.
Defined simply as: “a threatened penalty for disobeying a law or rule”, sanctions are generally considered to be measures used to reinforce the position of one state, or a group of states against another. The idea of disobeying a law or rule becomes interesting when we use this definition in conjunction with Russia. What law or rule has Russia broken for sanctions to be imposed upon it?
Following the Ukrainian Revolution in February 2014, a secession crisis began on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Unmarked armed forces began taking over the Crimean Peninsula, and these forces were quickly recognized to be Russian Special Forces and other paramilitaries. Putin initially rejected claims that Russian troops were aggravating the tense climate in Ukraine, however only to later admit that Russian troops were active in Crimea during the referendum which preceded the Ukrainian Revolution. The presence of Russian military during the Crimean referendum would only have served to facilitate principles of self-determination for the region. As a result of Putin’s aggression in the Crimean region, sanctions were imposed on Russia by the EU, the USA, Australia, and South Korea. Russia had broken international law, and violated Ukrainian sovereignty.
Further Sanctions?
Putin’s involvement in Ukraine has potentially broken trust that took years to build between Russian and the West. What has led to this trust being eroded?
· The failure to present a transparent picture of the Ukraine Crisis
· The continual denying of any involvement in the downing of flight MH17
· The fact that President Putin has failed to accept any responsibility for the MH17 tragedy;
· The increased level of military support for the rebels in Eastern Ukraine
The number of repeated Russian offences has led to popular Western sentiment that President Putin’s regime must be punished by use of further, harsher sanctions.
EU/UK/USA Sanctions what are they likely to be?
The sanctions imposed by the USA will no doubt hit Russia the hardest. Economic sanctions will make it harder for lenders such as VTB and Sberbank (leading Russian state owned banks) to raise equity and debt on Western capital markets. Without access to long term external financing, Russian debts will be harder to pay[1]. In addition to this, the flow of international capital into Russia has already fallen, and although state banks could draw on savings, there will be less money available to finance investment. Russia would still have one option available: deal with China. Any deal between Russia and the Chinese would no doubt aid the Russian economy, but China would want nothing less than access to Russia’s natural resources. President Putin’s hands are tied. EU Governments have also imposed an arms embargo, and have restricted sales of sensitive technology. EU sanctions will also see prominent Russian oligarchs targeted. The most high-profile of all being Arkady Rotenburg, a long term friend of President Putin, Mr. Rotenburg became rich under Putin, his construction company securing tenures for some of the largest infrastructure developments in Russia. Other figures being targeted by EU sanctions include Yuri Kovalchuk and Nikolay Shamalov, two of the largest shareholders of Bank Rossiya.
The need for sanctions against Russia lays a clear message that President Putin has acted for too long without accountability for his governments’ actions. What must be understood is that sanctions are measures of control that often precede war. If Russia continues its campaign in Ukraine despite the global humiliation of having sanctions imposed, could we be facing a second Cold War? Weakening Russia through its economy and shaming Russian oligarchs – closely protected friends of President Putin, shows the gravity of the situation. Despite the consequences for the UK, the EU and the USA, sanctions have been imposed. Arguably, the EU will be hit the hardest should Russia retaliate and cut off power to the majority of the EU that it supplies. I would argue that although Russia could survive the economic sanctions, what becomes impossible to avoid is the increasing sense of isolation that Russia will feel. Since the Cold War, relations between Russia and the West have been relatively consistent, however the effect of losing diplomatic ties with the West will be destroying. Irrespective of any deal made with the Chinese, the UK, EU and USA have made their position clear. Russia will not be recognized on the world stage by bullying its way onto it.
[1] http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21610322-cost-vladimir-putins-gamble-ukraine-going-up-he-shows-no-sign-changing
Following the downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine there has been continuous speculation over whether the passenger plane was shot down by Pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels, or by Ukrainian authorities themselves. Naturally, both parties vehemently deny any involvement in the crash however the downing of MH17 has raised serious questions over Russia’s role in Eastern Ukraine, and further its involvement in heightening the sense of conflict in the area.
Sanctions.
Defined simply as: “a threatened penalty for disobeying a law or rule”, sanctions are generally considered to be measures used to reinforce the position of one state, or a group of states against another. The idea of disobeying a law or rule becomes interesting when we use this definition in conjunction with Russia. What law or rule has Russia broken for sanctions to be imposed upon it?
Following the Ukrainian Revolution in February 2014, a secession crisis began on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Unmarked armed forces began taking over the Crimean Peninsula, and these forces were quickly recognized to be Russian Special Forces and other paramilitaries. Putin initially rejected claims that Russian troops were aggravating the tense climate in Ukraine, however only to later admit that Russian troops were active in Crimea during the referendum which preceded the Ukrainian Revolution. The presence of Russian military during the Crimean referendum would only have served to facilitate principles of self-determination for the region. As a result of Putin’s aggression in the Crimean region, sanctions were imposed on Russia by the EU, the USA, Australia, and South Korea. Russia had broken international law, and violated Ukrainian sovereignty.
Further Sanctions?
Putin’s involvement in Ukraine has potentially broken trust that took years to build between Russian and the West. What has led to this trust being eroded?
· The failure to present a transparent picture of the Ukraine Crisis
· The continual denying of any involvement in the downing of flight MH17
· The fact that President Putin has failed to accept any responsibility for the MH17 tragedy;
· The increased level of military support for the rebels in Eastern Ukraine
The number of repeated Russian offences has led to popular Western sentiment that President Putin’s regime must be punished by use of further, harsher sanctions.
EU/UK/USA Sanctions what are they likely to be?
The sanctions imposed by the USA will no doubt hit Russia the hardest. Economic sanctions will make it harder for lenders such as VTB and Sberbank (leading Russian state owned banks) to raise equity and debt on Western capital markets. Without access to long term external financing, Russian debts will be harder to pay[1]. In addition to this, the flow of international capital into Russia has already fallen, and although state banks could draw on savings, there will be less money available to finance investment. Russia would still have one option available: deal with China. Any deal between Russia and the Chinese would no doubt aid the Russian economy, but China would want nothing less than access to Russia’s natural resources. President Putin’s hands are tied. EU Governments have also imposed an arms embargo, and have restricted sales of sensitive technology. EU sanctions will also see prominent Russian oligarchs targeted. The most high-profile of all being Arkady Rotenburg, a long term friend of President Putin, Mr. Rotenburg became rich under Putin, his construction company securing tenures for some of the largest infrastructure developments in Russia. Other figures being targeted by EU sanctions include Yuri Kovalchuk and Nikolay Shamalov, two of the largest shareholders of Bank Rossiya.
The need for sanctions against Russia lays a clear message that President Putin has acted for too long without accountability for his governments’ actions. What must be understood is that sanctions are measures of control that often precede war. If Russia continues its campaign in Ukraine despite the global humiliation of having sanctions imposed, could we be facing a second Cold War? Weakening Russia through its economy and shaming Russian oligarchs – closely protected friends of President Putin, shows the gravity of the situation. Despite the consequences for the UK, the EU and the USA, sanctions have been imposed. Arguably, the EU will be hit the hardest should Russia retaliate and cut off power to the majority of the EU that it supplies. I would argue that although Russia could survive the economic sanctions, what becomes impossible to avoid is the increasing sense of isolation that Russia will feel. Since the Cold War, relations between Russia and the West have been relatively consistent, however the effect of losing diplomatic ties with the West will be destroying. Irrespective of any deal made with the Chinese, the UK, EU and USA have made their position clear. Russia will not be recognized on the world stage by bullying its way onto it.
[1] http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21610322-cost-vladimir-putins-gamble-ukraine-going-up-he-shows-no-sign-changing