On September 18th 2014, people of Scotland will vote on the long challenged question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” This post will set out the arguments for, and against and will assess the impact an independent Scotland could have on Britain, and the EU as a whole. The case for Scottish independence goes back to its unification with England in 1707. Many years later, the realization that an independence party was needed led to the creation of the Scottish National Party in 1934. It was created out of the Scottish Party, and the National Party of Scotland. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s Prime Minister and leader of the Yes Campaign won the SNP leadership in 1990 and has worked to position the party as pro-European and more socially democratic.
Popular arguments for Scottish independence include the following:
· A large majority of the laws which are enforced in Scotland are decided upon and passed in Westminster. They are laws which are passed without often taking into consideration the views and opinions of Scottish MP’s. As a result, there has been increased dissatisfaction in Scotland with laws being passed only for the benefit of those living in England.
· Scotland has predicted its North Sea oil and gas revenues will increase, bringing in at least £6.9bn a year. This is because Scotland owns huge shares in oil, which they would not have to share with the rest of the UK.
· Alex Salmond has claimed that by voting Yes, Scots will be on average £1000 better off a year. His argument is based on promises to increase minimum wage in line with cost of living and to provide 30 hours of childcare in term time for all three and four year olds.
· It is argued that conflict exists between Scotland and Westminster because of the ideological differences between Salmond and David Cameron. As leader of the SNP, Salmond is leading Scotland away from the policies espoused by Conservatives in Westminster. By becoming independent, this would reduce tensions between Scotland and England, and further, would allow Scotland to have its own say on the world stage.
· Representation on an international level is another argument used by the Yes Campaign. If Scotland were to become a separate nation it would need to be work with other EU countries to gain recognition. It is argued that by creating alliances with Nordic countries, such as Norway and Denmark (as other independence parties have done), Scotland would benefit from closer ties with states who are more likely to share their views and beliefs.
· An independent Scotland would seek to ban the use of nuclear weapons, and this has proved popular with those conscious of the environmental impact of independence.
Popular arguments against an independent Scotland:
· A united Britain, including Scotland, is where the UK’s strength lies on the world stage. Scotland has the power and influence that the UK wields, without it Scotland’s future could be in jeopardy.
· Unity with the UK means a platform within the EU. An independent Scotland may not be able to continue membership with the EU. There is no treaty that would require Scotland to leave the EU upon achieving independence however their position would nevertheless be weaker without the resonating voice that the UK currently has in the European Parliament.
· In addition to this, the use of the pound has been brought into question should the Yes Campaign succeed. Salmond has insisted throughout claims for independence that Scotland would keep the pound and would continue to use it. This is despite unequivocal claims from the three main parties in Westminster that they would not allow Scotland to continue to use the pound. The Labor Leader has even gone so far as to openly state that the Labour Party manifesto for 2015 would include a commitment to prevent sharing the pound with Scotland. Further, Westminster could deny an independent Scotland use of the Bank of England. This may prove detrimental to the UK economy, however it could be used as a serious measure to back the No Campaign.
· The No Campaign has argued heavily about the risk posed to jobs, should Scotland gain independence. Around 600,000 Scottish jobs are with companies based in the UK or depend on solid trade links with the UK. Separation it is argued, would put these jobs at risk and deprive Scottish citizens of trade opportunities with a domestic market twelve times its size.
· There are also fears about the SNP’s claims of oil resources and the income this would generate. Whilst it is true, Scotland has access to vast oil resources from the North Sea, the money generated from this resource is spent on public services such as schools, hospitals and pensions. This brings into question claims that under independence Scottish citizens would be £1000 better off per year.
Although this is just a summary of both Yes and No Campaigns and the questions being raised, the likelihood of an independent Scotland is real. The devolution challenge the SNP poses is the most significant threat to Westminster’s sovereignty in recent times. It has raised debate over ‘Britishness’ and further, exposed cracks within the United Kingdom – apparently not so united after all.
Video Credits: National Institute of Economic & Social Research